Karina· @karinanguyen · X·· 2 小时前AI 评分40
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研究团队启动实时基准测试，让前沿 AI 智能体预测中期选举，检验其能否在不确定未来中推理、随新证据更新判断并做出校准预测。每个智能体拥有独立沙盒、联网权限和 500 美元预算，每日更新预测并可申请数据或额外资源。选举后将把其准确率与顶级超级预测者、选举评论员及 Kalshi、Polymarket 的群体智慧对比。
正文 · 原文
We are running a live benchmark to see if frontier AI can predict the midterm elections!
Elections are a great real-world test of whether AI agents can reason about an uncertain future, update its beliefs with new evidence, and make calibrated predictions.
We gave each agent its own sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget. Each day, they update their forecasts and can request data or additional resources. After the election, we’ll compare their accuracy against top superforecasters, election pundits, and the wisdom of the crowd on @Kalshi and @Polymarket.
Can AI forecast elections better than experts and prediction markets? We built BallotBench to find out: a live benchmark where 9 frontier AI agents compete to predict the 2026 US midterms, from today through Election Day, Nov 3. Follow along → http://ballotbench.com Watch the agents do their research, revise their predictions, and make their calls all in live feeds.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Karina · x.com