面向可解释的数据驱动灾后泥石流预测基准

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Abstract:Post-wildfire debris flows (PFDFs) are destructive sediment-laden hazards triggered when intense rainfall strikes recently burned terrain, destabilizing hillslopes and threatening infrastructure, local economies, and community safety. Data-driven methods have been proposed to learn predictive patterns directly from historical PFDF observations. However, the current research landscape of data-driven PFDF prediction remains highly fragmented across feature spaces, model architectures, and evaluation protocols, making rigorous comparison and the derivation of scientific insights difficult. Moreover, existing studies lack a systematic investigation into the relative importance of heterogeneous factors (e.g., meteorological conditions, terrain characteristics, soil properties, and burn severity) in triggering PFDF. To address these limitations, we present a unified benchmark for data-driven PFDF prediction, enabling fair and comprehensive evaluation across diverse models and feature configurations. Furthermore, to better understand the underlying drivers of PFDF formation, we propose a reinforcement learning-based feature selection framework that identifies factors whose perturbations render positive and negative events indistinguishable, thereby discovering the regional underlying mechanisms of PFDF occurrence across regions. Our code and benchmark are publicly available at this https URL.

Subjects:	Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Cite as:	arXiv:2610.07358 [cs.LG]
	(or arXiv:2610.07358v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
	https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.07358 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Yu Wang [view email]
[v1] Mon, 5 Oct 2026 20:25:43 UTC (290 KB)