Tom Tunguz 分析：LLM 定价三年走势与不可持续的补贴
The Unsustainable Subsidy
Tom Tunguz 基于三年 LLM 定价数据指出，旗舰模型价格先降后升，Google Gemini 每年约涨三倍，OpenAI 旗舰曾获补贴后回升，Anthropic 价格基本持平且最强模型降价。
In short : Three years of LLM pricing data: flagship prices dropped, then flipped upward, while budget models bounced back. Tokenizer efficiency softened the headline, but real costs are rising.
Google’s AI triples in price each year.
OpenAI’s flagship model was seemingly subsidized for a while, before rising again.
Anthropic’s AI has been the same price for a little bit & decreased for the most powerful models.
Those are three very different pricing strategies. If we compare the absolutes, the data completes the picture.
| Vendor | Model | Input ($/1M) | Output ($/1M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | $2.00 | $12.00 | |
| Anthropic | Claude Opus 4.7 | $5.00 | $25.00 |
| OpenAI | GPT-5.5 | $5.00 | $30.00 |
Google remains the low-cost player, increasing the price on all its models but still less than half of the competition. Anthropic had maintained a luxe pricing until late last year.
The pricing changes indicate changes in strategy : cuts when cash is plentiful & share matters. Increases when cash is tight & margins matter. The latter is the case for all three vendors now when capex spending continues to set records.
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GP at Theory Ventures. Former Google PM. Sharing data-driven insights on AI, web3, & venture capital.
来源：Tomer Tunguz 博客（VC 分析） · tomtunguz.com