Gartner 警告：AI 竞赛使 3.5 万亿美元基建支出面临减值风险

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AI Race Puts $3.5 Trillion at Write-Down Risk, Gartner Warns

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By Ruhell Amin, Neil Campling, and Mark Bergen

October 15, 2026 at 8:36 AM UTC

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More than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be at risk of impairment by 2030 as the industry’s investment boom threatens to outpace the revenue required to justify it, according to an analysis by market research firm Gartner Inc.

AI data center owners would need to generate a cumulative $8.5 trillion in revenue through 2030 to cover capital spending, financing costs and achieve a 12% return on invested capital. Yet Gartner forecasts no more than $3.6 trillion in attributable enterprise and consumer AI revenue over that period — less than half the required amount.

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