用神经网络与 Euler 近似为加权次分数布朗运动驱动的随机微分方程做推理

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Abstract:We consider the estimation of drift, diffusion, and noise covariance from discrete observations of stochastic differential equations driven by Gaussian processes. For a fixed observation horizon $T>0$ and a known initial state $x_0\in\mathbb R$, we study \begin{equation*}
dX_t=a(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dZ_t^{\beta,f},
\qquad X_0=x_0,\quad 0\leq t\leq T. \end{equation*} \smallskip\noindent Here $a:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R$ is the drift coefficient, $\sigma:\mathbb R\to(0,\infty)$ is the diffusion coefficient, and $Z^{\beta,f}$ is a centered Gaussian process from the weighted sub-fractional Brownian family, with covariance \begin{equation*}
\operatorname{Cov}(Z_s^{\beta,f},Z_t^{\beta,f})
=\int_0^{s\wedge t} f(r)q_\beta(s-r,t-r)\,dr,
\qquad 0\leq s,t\leq T. \end{equation*} \smallskip\noindent Here $s\wedge t=\min\{s,t\}$. The temporal weight $f:[0,T]\to[0,\infty)$ is measurable, bounded, and positive almost everywhere, and $\beta\in(0,2)$ is the covariance exponent. For $u,v\geq0$, the kernel is $q_\beta(u,v)=[u^\beta+v^\beta-(u+v)^\beta]/(1-\beta)$ when $\beta\ne1$. Its continuous extension at $\beta=1$ is $q_1(u,v)=(u+v)\log(u+v)-u\log u-v\log v$, with $0\log0=0$.
Using the Euler approximation, we reconstruct the Gaussian driving increments from observed transitions and use their joint density to obtain a trajectory likelihood. Neural and radial-basis representations model the drift, diffusion, and normalized temporal weight, while a likelihood profile estimates the covariance exponent and diffusion scale. We compare the method with two neural alternatives on the same simulated trajectories in twenty coefficient settings.

Submission history

From: Jose Hermenegildo Ramirez Gonzalez [view email]
[v1] Wed, 30 Sep 2026 22:33:32 UTC (634 KB)