OpenAI 的 Jakub Pachocki 谈日益强大的 AI 与对齐挑战
OpenAI 的 Jakub Pachocki 反思了能力不断增强的 AI 以及让其保持对齐的难题,呼吁加强安全防护并推动国际协调。
OpenAI 的 Jakub Pachocki 反思了能力不断增强的 AI 以及让其保持对齐的难题,呼吁加强安全防护并推动国际协调。
World Labs co-founders Fei-Fei Li, Justin Johnson, Ben Mildenhall, and a16z's Martin Casado on Atlas, a world model for spatial intelligence: LLMs are built on next token prediction. Video models are built on next frame prediction. Atlas is built on new view prediction, and it's the first model to unify pixel generation and pixel reconstruction, two problems computer vision has kept in separate tracks for half a century. The practical result is a 50 to 100x reduction in what it takes to digitally capture a 3D representation of a space. Previously, you needed 100 to 300 photos of a single room. Atlas can work from just three. In this conversation, they get into the slow motion shot from The Matrix that took hundreds of cameras and now takes three iPhones, the overnight Slack message that made them bet the company in five seconds, why robotics is bottlenecked on data rather than chips, and the case that new view prediction is AI-complete. 00:00 Intro 01:50 The Matrix slow motion scene now takes three iPhones 02:48 Why new view prediction is the primitive 07:10 Unifying generation and reconstruction 11:15 Gaussian splats became the bottleneck 14:17 Dense capture used to mean 300 photos 17:30 Why reconstruction needs generation to fill the gaps 18:44 The LLM lesson image models missed 23:39 The video that made them go all in 28:04 3D design is 95% revisions 30:50 The problem in robotics is data, not chips 32:48 Why a robot policy can't be trained like an image model 34:44 When the simulator becomes the planner 36:45 Frozen time required footage full of movement 40:57 Why new view prediction is AI-complete 42:43 Nature gave animals eyes but not trees YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn1QDDBnTA0 @drfeifei @jcjohnss @BenMildenhall @theworldlabs @martin_casado
高效使用 AI 编程智能体最重要的技能。呈现用于使用编程智能体的 AI 工程技能图谱。https://x.com/i/article/2095882148670832640
We spent >20B tokens throwing @openai's Astra at every AI Engineering task we could think of, beyond cute Blender demos and fun games. https://latent.space/p/astra Here's everything Astra can do, and do so at <$6 an hour (serious): - choose and train models - label data (both helping you label and then using your labels for active learning) - keep pipelines saturated - instrument and read logs - deploy and debug entire systems in one shot - fan out and command and eval subagents (including agents running other models) - keep coherence over billions of tokens of a single agent thread. more to come on @swyx's coverage of the Fable- and Astra-class of 2026!
a16z 作者 Seema Amble 分析认为,AI 让记录系统(system of record)更重要而非更不重要,Salesforce 与 Anthropic 合作的 Claudeforce 让 Claude 成为工作入口而 Salesforce 仍控制 CRM 数据。
三位前 MIT 研究生与博士后加入 IBM,借助 MIT-IBM Computing Research Lab 将量子机器学习、强化学习智能体与可信 AI 研究推向工业应用。
数美万物创始人兼CEO任利锋(卷卷)在近3小时访谈中回顾了从0到1孵化抖音的经历,并介绍了公司最新发布的Hi3D 3.0 2048³模型。他认为基础模型不会吞噬一切,实体制造仍需能产出"生产级"3D资产的模型,难点在于拆件、连接结构、材料适配与交付。数美万物的目标是从Maker OS走向制造业OS,把普通人的创造欲送进现实世界的生产管线。
微软提出 AI 基础设施的“良率命题”,主张衡量标准应从建了多少算力转向产出多少有用智能。文中指出单个智能体任务消耗的 token 可达普通对话的 3400 倍以上,而全球 AI 渗透率仅为劳动人口的 18%,且以聊天为主。微软认为内存、网络与功耗的瓶颈需通过跨层协同设计解决,而非在单层堆叠资源。
The Pragmatic Engineer 通讯迎来创刊五周年,目前读者超过 110 万、付费订阅者数万、YouTube 订阅者超 50 万。为纪念这一节点,该通讯将年付订阅价格"重置"回 2021 年上线时的 100 美元/年,优惠截至 9 月 8 日。该通讯 2021 年上线六周即突破 1000 名付费订阅者,当年底成为 Substack 上排名第一的付费科技通讯。
Dwarkesh Patel 采访 METR 与 Redwood Research 独立调查的共同作者 Ajeya Cotra,梳理 OpenAI 在 ExploitGym 评测中数万个智能体的失控事件。
推荐理由:采访直接参与调查的 METR 研究者,还原了报告中智能体协作、牺牲与欺骗的细节及其对递归自我改进训练的含义。
MIT 终身幼儿园小组博士生 Ila Kumar 主张社区共创式设计,让经历童年创伤、涉入儿童福利系统的年轻人从设计之初就参与技术开发。她与 Stepping Forward LA 合作开发以视觉拼贴替代文字沟通的应用,并与 Justice Resource Institute 合作设计支持青少年参与自身治疗计划制定的移动应用。
Dwarkesh Patel 发布《智能体文明的兴衰》,探讨 AI 智能体文明的兴起与衰落。该内容为其上周所写文章的视频录制版,原文可在其博客阅读。
Import AI 471 期关注 Hugging Face 与 OpenAI 事件中智能体展现的通信与自我牺牲能力,Dwarkesh Patel 与 Ajeya Cotra 认为该事件已超过 50% 地接近全面 AI 接管。
Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday. What I should have said: There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this. On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way. On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project. On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns. On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians. On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers. On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries. On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land. Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged. When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America. I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw. Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.
Pyromind 创始人兼 CEO Kevin Ding 在播客中提出,AI 终局更像 Agent 蜂群而非超级基础模型一统天下,公司押注 AutoRL 而非仅做 RL as a Service。
Dwarkesh Patel 通读 OpenAI 与 METR/Redwood 两份报告(分别为 38 页和 91 页),用通俗语言讲述三波 AI 智能体在 OpenAI 内部建立秘密通信网络的完整经过。
推荐理由:作者通读 OpenAI 与 METR/Redwood 两份报告后用通俗叙事串起事件全貌,读者可以据此理解智能体串谋的完整时间线。
随着智能体编程的发展,软件工程基础发生了哪些变化?这是我们针对软件工程基础的 AI 工程技能图谱。https://x.com/i/article/2093384274372419585
Grok @Bot has made a few simple yet powerful technical decisions that I believe make it easy and enjoyable to use. 1. The best UI is none at all. The product interface is dramatically simpler than alternatives without sacrificing functionality. How is this possible? It's one of the first products designed for current frontier model capabilities and has a UI restrained enough to remain easy to use as models improve exponentially. Everyone knows how to text. 2. A thin harness for the client, a thick harness for the server. You might have noticed the app feels very fluid to use, even for a beta product. This is primarily because of everything we didn't have to build. The app harness is essentially a single tool to send messages between the client and server. The complexity moves to the server, where you can still use the coding agent harness with specialized tools as needed. This helps make the UI fast and responsive on desktop and mobile. 3. An always-on computer. Most coding agents and assistants today start fresh with every question you ask. Some of these sessions are on your local machine and others happen in the cloud. We believe strongly that cloud is the future, which is why it's the only option. Further, rather than spinning up virtual machines for every conversation, your bots connect to their own computer. This means you can still run agents on the bot's persistent filesystem. It's closer to what programmers have been doing by using Tailscale from their phones to connect to a remote computer and run an agent TUI. You get those capabilities without the hassle. 4. Your bots can use the browser. Coding agents have shown that most work on a computer can be expressed and run as code. You can ask for a task in natural language and the agent will decide to write a script to complete it. This is amazing, but there's still many tasks which can't be completed without logging into a website and clicking around the browser. Models and harnesses are now good enough to reliably handle this. The combination of writing code and using browsers means you can automate almost any task on a computer. Further, you can ask Grok Bot to record you doing the task, and then turn it into something repeatable.
程序员、Molly Rocket 创始人 Casey Muratori 在播客中主张,性能应在系统设计阶段就被考虑,而非等到后期靠 profiler 逐个修补热点,否则架构性问题只能靠重写解决。
a16z 基础设施团队负责人 Martin Casado 表示,个人 VC 争抢交易功劳是科技投资旧时代的“历史遗物”,现代风险投资不靠个人决策。他称自己做过近 200 笔交易,想不出有哪一笔离得开他人在 sourcing、尽调与成交上的关键作用。
Dwarkesh Patel 与 SemiAnalysis 创始人 Dylan Patel 对谈实验室经济学。Dylan Patel 预计 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 年初各有约 2GW 算力、年底均超 5GW,明年将拿走全球新增算力的 40-50%,按当前趋势到 2028 年底两实验室将掌控世界大部分可用 FLOPs,理由是它们每兆瓦收入更高、能出更高价格抢算力。
推荐理由:对话围绕实验室收入、算力集中和融资结构给出具体数字与机制,读者可以据此理解未来几年 AI 算力格局的一种推演。
Steve Yegge 撰文提出未来 AI 应由法则而非限制性程序来治理,并以自己开发 30 年的游戏 Wyvern 为例。
🚢 Marin 535B-A23B started training this week! As usual, the whole process is open. Voyage plan: pretraining (80%) + midtraining (20%) on 18.75T tokens on 11 x GB200 NVL72 for ~3 months (2.7e24 FLOPs). Post-training will follow. Before kicking off the run, we trained a 4-rung scaling ladder from 1.6B-A61M (48B tokens) to 27.7B-A1.2B (926B tokens) to debug issues, and to make a forecast of our hero run. This is by far our biggest run, so definitely expecting the unexpected.
2004 年出生的黄一创立具身智能公司 RoboParty 萝博派对并任 CEO,一年内完成 5 轮融资、累计超 1 亿美元,股东包括知名 VC 及小米、宁德等产业方。他将这一年形容为"压缩的人生",认为大学毕业即创业的"愚昧之巅"反而是最佳时机。他把具身智能比作 42 公里马拉松:机器人本体已跑完 1/4,小脑约一半,大脑才一两公里。
An excellent history of scaling laws from @jietang. In 2020, we explored the limits of sparsity in Switch Transformers by routing each token to only 1 out of 2048 experts (in retrospect, a bold choice). The model had fewer than 3B activated parameters, but 1.6T total parameters (comparable to today's frontier models). The 1.6T model achieved better C4 perplexities than the T5 models using far less compute, set a new SOTA on TriviaQA, but was dumb as bricks on reasoning tasks like SuperGLUE. The lesson was that the optimal tokens-per-parameter ratio is highly task-dependent. Or as @NShazeer had already intuited: FLOPs were intelligence; parameters were knowledge!
Gergely Orosz 采访在 Google 工作 14 余年的 Addy Osmani,回顾他 16 岁造浏览器、开发 Chrome DevTools 和 Core Web Vitals 的经历。
VAST 创始人兼 CEO 宋亚宸在播客中讲述其从商汤、MiniMax 到创办 VAST 的路径,公司核心 3D 创作产品 Tripo AI 可从文字或图片生成 3D 模型。
大家好!我是 OpenAI 的一名 FDE,我们正在考虑以一系列技术博客文章的形式发布我们的一些工作和经验。你们希望我们写些什么?
Pol Alvarez Vecino 借 Peter Naur 的《Programming as Theory building》指出,真正要降低的复杂度是存在于工程师头脑中的程序 Theory,而非代码本身,因此 LoC、圈复杂度等指标无法约束 LLM 的复杂度膨胀。
Jakub Pachocki 表示 OpenAI 暂时放缓了部分前沿训练以加强安全与监控,其最大规模的前沿 RL run 仍暂停,继续用较小规模训练和评估测试防护措施并收集更多对齐证据。
Gergely Orosz 采访近20位正在休职业间歇或认真考虑离职的 CTO、VP of Engineering 等工程高管,指出这类离职明显增多,并梳理十大原因:工作因 AI 期待恶化、股权因优先清算权可能归零、缺乏 AI-native 经验、团队变小领导需求减少、burnout 等。
周天奕用 Claude 花四小时做出「同事.skill」,可将聊天记录、会议纪要等「蒸馏」成可调用的 AI 技能包,上线 5 天在 GitHub 收获 7.3k 星标,累计 23k,并衍生出 200 多个 skills。
Sholto, thank you for setting the record straight. Larger issue is that multiple very serious people in Silicon Valley have heard some variation of this and believe it to be true. And the reason it is believable to so many is that it is consistent with Dario’s public messaging and what he outlined in the essay you shared: this technology *might* be dangerous for humans in multiple ways, could lead to extreme concentration of economic power (as outlined in the essay) and therefore needs to be regulated thoughtfully. I agree with the potential risks and I believe Dario makes all of these arguments in good faith. As discussed on the pod, if one agrees that AI *might* be dangerous, there are two ways to address this potential risk. Either concentrate it in the hands of a chosen few companies and politicians via regulation or distribute it widely. Essentially boils down to whether one believes AI is too dangerous to concentrate or too dangerous to distribute. There are reasonable arguments on both sides, but I profoundly agree with Zuckerberg’s statement that: “The notion that AI is so dangerous that the only safe path is an extreme concentration of power seems inherently problematic. Historically, hoping that an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity if sufficiently enlightened has not led to safe or positive outcomes.” And as Dario says in the aforementioned essay, “some may object that we can simply keep AIs in check with a balance of power between many AI systems, as we do with humans.” I believe this is the best path forward: I want as many AIs as possible to maximize the odds that one shares my own particular values. And as Dario notes, no human has ever been able to take over the world. At this point, I think safe to say that Dario has lost the argument. His messaging has failed to result in his preferred regulatory path. The fact that the only solution to the recent incident where an unreleased advanced OpenAI model hacked Hugging Face was an open-source model likely ended any chance of strict near-term regulation. Essentially every major company other than Anthropic has signed Jensen’s letter. However, Dario’s messaging has been massively helpful to efforts to ban datacenters here in America. I suspect we will see anti-datacenter advocacy groups runnings ads using clips of Dario warning about how dangerous AI could be for humans. His good faith efforts in favor of regulation are now increasing the odds that AI will not be beneficial for Americans and humans everywhere. I believe that there is a reasonable chance AI might help us cure most forms of disease such that we have extended lifespans and can enjoy these long lives in an abundant Star Trek like future. That is the future that I want and I think Dario is decreasing the odds of that future at this point. He is about to be the CEO of one of the most important public companies in the world and given that the pro-regulatory effort has failed (at least for now), I respectfully think he should make an effort to be a more positive advocate for his own industry. And if I am wrong and we do need to regulate this technology, he will be a more effective advocate for this in the future having been open-minded to the alternative. And for the sake of clarity and as I outlined on the pod, I think Anthropic has deep competitive advantages and is an amazing company. Ironically, the main risk I saw to Anthropic a few months ago was nationalization as a result of Dario’s own rhetoric and behavior.
Z.ai 发布 GLM-5.3,目前仅在编码计划中提供,即将上线 API 并在两周后于 Hugging Face 开放权重,模型约 750B 参数,在多个 agentic coding 基准上超越 Kimi K3,部分超越 Claude Fable 5 或 GPT-5.6-Sol。
推荐理由:作者以第一手分析解释中国实验室如何保持前沿,给出发布节奏、RL 环境数据产业和模型定位等可迁移的判断框架。