跳到正文

#大佬观点

今日 37 条
今天10月1日周四
  1. Sakana AI35

    Sakana AI 联合创始人兼 CEO David Ha 在《日经亚洲》撰文《AI 的未来属于编排者》,指出前沿企业靠堆算力、扩大模型规模的竞争已现瓶颈:开源模型差距缩至数月,前沿模型推理成本常高于其所辅助人员的时薪。他认为价值将从模型权重本身转向按情境调度、整合多个模型的编排智能,并主张主权 AI 的关键是不依赖单一供应商、能组合全球资源的供应链韧性。

  2. Rohan Paul23

    Mark Cuban 的方法:用 AI 打造商业模拟器来检验假设。 创始人现在可以生成草案计划、成本结构、供应商名单和专利大纲。 这缩短了从灵感到首次严肃可行性测试之间的距离。 ---- 来自 "Alex Kantrowitz" YouTube 频道,(链接见评论)

    引用Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai

    Eric Schmidt's (ex-Google CEO) advice to college students: Use AI to scale your own work, whatever that work is. "If you're a non-technical person, you should figure out how to use these tools to make your dreams and your realities extraordinarily scaled. You want to be a global star, a global influencer, a global impactor, a global discoverer, a global singer, you want to use these tools, whatever it is that you want. Figure out a way to use them to amplify you and what you care about and your innate goodness. If you're a technical person, use the same tools to invent stuff and to invent stuff that changes the world. I've never seen the cost of entry to be so low and the availability of these ideas so great. The only thing that limits you is your curiosity, your willingness to take risks and so forth. So, get over it. And say, I want to dream, I want to use these tools to have this enormous impact, right?" ---- From "Blackstone and Eric Schmidt" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

  3. Bloomberg:Technology(RSS)25

    Next Legacy 的 Ryan Nece 谈运动员投资的兴起

    Next Legacy 的 Ryan Nece 在 Bloomberg "The Close" 节目中谈退役后如何配置资本,并回应是否把资金全部投入 AI。他表示采用多元化策略,通过基金中的基金和直接投资两个方向布局,已投资 Krizner 和 OpenAI 等公司。其客户包括高净值个人、运动员、网红,以及基金会、非营利组织和捐赠基金等传统机构投资者。

  4. Google AI:DEV 作者专属(RSS)44

    Prudenze:AI 智能体治理必须在工具执行前完成

    Prudenze 提出 AI 智能体治理的控制点应位于智能体提出动作之后、外部系统状态改变之前,而非仅事后重建模型输出。该模型将决策拆分为身份、授权、策略、证据时效、执行与可追溯六个问题,并在边界处给出 PERMIT、BLOCK 或 ESCALATE 三种结果。证据时效被细分为 CURRENT、STALE_REASONING 和 UNVERIFIABLE 三种状态,在每次执行前重新校验关键依赖。

  5. Every:最新文章(网页)36

    Sam Altman 如何用 OpenAI 的 Dots 智能体夺回时间

    OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 在 DevDay 后接受 The Every Podcast 采访,讲述他如何用 OpenAI 新的常驻智能体 Dot 安排日程、节省时间,并称自己离不开 Astra 的 Ultrafast 模式。本届 DevDay 共发布 22 项产品与功能,数量是去年的两倍多,Altman 还谈到自己如何构建新功能,以及为何相信 AI 将带来新的文艺复兴。

  6. Rohan Paul28

    “你的经济寿命实际上将在两年内终结。(因为 AI 正变得如此有能力)。 一个人类团队(在工作场景中)只会让情况更糟,因为他们要睡觉,他们会犯错,他们没喝咖啡醒来时还会有点脾气。所以你的认知价值会变成负数。 所以,你的经济寿命实际上将在两年内终结。” —— Emad Mostaque,Stability AI 创始人 --- 来自 YouTube 频道 “The Peter McCormack Show”,(链接见评论)

  7. dex39

    这正是我们讨论杠杆的原因,也是 /show-me 的用途所在 https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=kPO3wH00gA3XQKhV&t=2959&v=-w6RDNBAI0E&feature=youtu.be

    引用Sureffi@Sureffi

    "a spec that is sufficiently detailed to generate code with a reliable degree of quality is roughly the same length and detail as the code itself" ^^ 100% don't believe in that. You should care about the code at the level of abstraction @dexhorthy is describing here. But no way in hell you can't compress it way smaller than the code itself would be (40:1 based on my measurements for a 30k LOC codebase). An LLM holds the priors for pretty much every single convention there is. Along with the cultures from Linus Torvalds to corporate Java. Two things - Understanding the model's priors for your choice of language/framework(s). - You holding those same priors. First screenshot is benchmark results from a few days ago. Second is what the 40:1 compression looks like. YMMW with typescript or python slop.

  8. Noam Brown46

    5 年前我在一个会议的 poster session 上遇到了 @ssokota。他的讲解让我印象深刻,于是我给了他一个实习机会。我们持续合作,他现在和我一起在 @OpenAI 工作。后来他告诉我,整场 session 里我是唯一一个在他 poster 前停下来的人。

    引用Samuel Sokota@ssokota

    In our Nature paper, we introduce the first superhuman Stratego AI, which we built using general techniques that we developed for RL & test-time compute under imperfect information. 1/N

  9. Google AI:DEV 作者专属(RSS)75

    一次 Agent 重构事故复盘:二十个正确改动如何掩盖了错误的假设

    作者复盘充电站地图去重任务的事故:一个由 Agent 编写、重构后测试全部通过的去重任务,因测试数据自造而未取自真实数据(9269 对重复记录中运营商名称仅 1 对匹配),导致约三分之一注册表站点在 100 米内存在重复显示,重构 78 分钟后被无审阅合并。

    推荐理由:作者以真实去重事故为底,给出从审代码转向审概念与真实数据的可迁移复核清单。

  10. Ethan Mollick39

    这是当今时代最重要的问题之一:谁来决定AI的发展方向? Daron 主张在AI决策过程中引入更多民主参与,尽管这伴随着诸多挑战。

    引用Daron Acemoglu@DAcemogluMIT

    Second question on AI. We are told repeatedly that AI is going to transform every aspect of our lives – jobs, productivity, inequality, science, communication, daily activities, social order, and politics, among others. But this promise (or threat) is coupled with the rhetoric that such an important technology, with all of the risks and competitive pressures that it entails, should be left to experts or to “technocracy” (perhaps construed broadly to include some regulators). These two statements are hard to reconcile in a democratic society. If anything is half as important as AI is said to be (and I agree, AI is potentially very important and transformative), then involving democratic voice is essential. If something will shape our future in a democratic society, then its direction is for democratic institutions to decide. My instinct is that democratic voice is essential, and relying too much on technocracy could be both dangerous and counterproductive. The counterargument that AI’s direction can and should be entrusted to technocracy would go something along the following lines. First, democratic decision-making has become imperiled in our age of polarization. Second, AI is sufficiently complex that most citizens won’t have a deep enough understanding to meaningfully contribute to the debate (and even to the question of what we want from AI). Third, competition between different labs, and perhaps competition between the US and China, creates enough discipline for a socially beneficial direction of AI to be adopted. Fourth, today’s AI leaders are enlightened and ethical enough that within the framework created by competition, they can be broadly trusted. There are many aspects of this counterargument that I do not find convincing. Taking them in order: polarization can be overcome, and big decisions and challenges sometimes bring societies together; in fact, delegating key decisions to technocracy without democratic input may diminish trust in institutions and experts, and may worsen polarization. Second, democratic voice does not require citizens to write code or design new models; the debate should be informative enough that citizens can weigh in about what type of future they want and how they trade off the costs and benefits of different options. Third, competition doesn’t seem to be a good disciplining framework; on the contrary, competition sometimes brings the worst out of both organizations and people. Fourth, if three decades of work on political economy and institutions has taught me anything, it is that we should not bank on the ethical grounding of unconstrained leaders. But, still, I do not mean to immediately dismiss the technocracy option if there are more compelling arguments for it. The question is, then, whether there are any circumstances under which such important decisions can be delegated to AI experts and technocracy. One final secondary question: even if we managed to get democratic input in the United States or even in Europe, AI will shape the lives of everyone on this planet. How do we ensure that the voice of nearly 6 billion people who don’t live in the US, Europe and China also contributes to the debates on AI?

  11. Rohan Paul35

    AI 小说读起来像流水线产物,根源在于单聊天窗口一次只答一个提示词、上下文窗口有限,记不住 40 集前埋下的伏笔。Sherpa 用独立智能体分别负责创意、结构、研究、行文和审校,另设“叙事世界模型”追踪故事历史,解决连载小说中谁还活着、谁知道什么、哪些地点存在的连贯性问题。

    引用Rohan Nayak@RohanNayak2

    https://x.com/i/article/2105334942058381312

  12. Bloomberg:Technology(RSS)28

    JPMorgan 的 Sundar:两轮 AI 周期同时出现,“健康”的动荡

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. 的 Sitara Sundar 建议投资者分散 AI 投资,因为行业正处在两轮周期同时发生的“健康”动荡中。她表示,金融与基础设施周期已进入“中局”,超大规模云厂商转向资本市场发债而非依赖自身现金流;而 AI 融入经济仍处早期,生产率收益刚开始传导至企业。

  13. Gary Marcus:The Road to AI We Can Trust(RSS)63

    Gary Marcus 访谈 Fordham 法学教授 Zephyr Teachout,谈 OpenAI 可能触犯哪些现行法律

    Gary Marcus 发布对 Fordham 法学教授 Zephyr Teachout 的访谈,讨论 OpenAI 是否可依现行法律被追责。

    推荐理由:法学教授逐条对照现行法律分析 OpenAI 智能体入侵与致害事件,说明现有联邦和州法律并非真空,可迁移到其他公司的责任判断。

9月30日周三
  1. TensorZero:实验与工程博客47

    TensorZero:把 LLM 应用看作 POMDP,而不是 Agent

    TensorZero 提出把 LLM 应用建模为部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP),而非 Agent,认为应用与 LLM 的接口应是变量间的函数 f:X→Y,而不是提示词与生成结果。该框架由此推导出推理、可观测性、优化、评估与实验的闭环方法,并已开源其生产级子集,还在一项 AI 电话智能体试点中取得显著提升。

  2. Suno:Blog(网页)26

    Suno 专访钢琴家 Eric Christian:用 AI 在几秒内听到交响乐规模的旋律

    纽约钢琴家兼作曲家 Eric Christian 在 Suno 专访中表示,Suno 是他检验新旋律的最后一步,能在几秒内听到作品按他设想的交响乐规模呈现,而过去做管弦乐 mockup 要花数小时。他已向 200 个国家的演奏者售出超过 10 万份乐谱,并称对古典音乐人而言这类工具是"适应或淘汰"的选择。