Pershing Square CIO Ryan Israel 谈 AI 之外的投资布局
Ryan Israel on Investing Beyond AI
Pershing Square 首席投资官 Ryan Israel 在 Bloomberg Open Interest 节目中表示，随着 AI 股票回落且利率仍令人担忧，公司专注于以有吸引力的价格买入约 12 至 15 家高质量、持久增长型企业。他讨论了眼护理公司 Alcon 与 Netflix 的长期投资逻辑、宏观押注的时机，以及公司向私募成长型企业的扩张。
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Bloomberg Open Interest • Oct 15th, 2026
Ryan Israel on Investing Beyond AI
As AI stocks retreat and rates remain a concern, Pershing Square CIO Ryan Israel joins Bloomberg Open Interest to explain why the firm is focused on durable businesses at attractive prices. He discusses the long-term cases for the eye-care company Alcon and Netflix, when a macro bet makes sense and the firm’s expansion into private growth companies.
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0:00
Joining us now, I'm pleased to say, is Ryan Israel, chief investment officer at
0:03
Pershing Square Capital Management. Ryan, great to get you on.
0:05
Thanks for having me. And look, we've is maybe the poster
0:08
child for this, but a lot of I am selling off in your portfolio.
0:11
You don't have any sort of pure I type names.
0:14
You have Amazon. That's maybe the closest corollary.
0:16
I wonder when you look at semi selling off like 18% in just the past two weeks,
0:20
if you're feeling quite invalidated by that decision to avoid them.
0:24
Well, I think it's certainly very interesting if you kind of take a step
0:26
back when we look at the markets this year.
0:28
One of the things that's fascinating to us is the strength in the S&P 500 has
0:32
been driven by a very small collection of companies.
0:34
A lot of the ones that you just mentioned, what that means for our
0:37
strategy were we're trying to curate a portfolio of, let's say, a dozen or 15
0:41
of the world's great, we call high quality, durable growth businesses.
0:44
Those have been on sale all year long. The businesses are performing incredibly
0:47
well, but the stock market hasn't been paying attention to those businesses.
0:51
We've been able to buy them what we think are very attractive prices.
0:54
On days like today, you're starting to see the strength of that strategy, where
0:56
a lot of the names that have driven a lot of the stock market performance here
0:59
to date are giving up, and a lot of the names that we own are doing quite well,
1:03
as people are starting to differentiate the businesses where we think the
1:06
purchase prices are very attractive and have great growth in a relatively
1:10
volatile environment of higher rates. And just overall, a little bit of a
1:14
question marks about exactly the rate of eye spending from some of the large
1:17
level. Just on that, because we're starting to
1:19
question it really in earnest and price that.
1:21
And do you think something is flipped in this market that now those unloved names
1:25
that you picked up when they were unloved are starting to get recognized
1:29
that a leadership shift might be undergoing on this market?
1:31
I think it's always hard to say exactly when a leadership shift will emerge or
1:35
when it's happened. But if you step back, what we're
1:37
ultimately trying to do is buy businesses that we believe can compound
1:40
their earnings anywhere between 15 and 25% a year.
1:42
Taking a longer term perspective. If we hold these businesses for a long
1:45
period of time, the returns we earn will over a very long period of time, say the
1:49
life of the business, approximate the growth in their earnings per share.
1:53
Now that's only one component of it. The second component of how our returns
1:56
are is how the multiple that people assign to those earnings changes in the
1:59
short term. that fluctuation of the multiple has a
2:01
much larger impact than the growth over a long period of time.
2:04
The growth of the business is matter, so our game is really just trying to find
2:08
great businesses where we know if we hold them for three, five, ten years and
2:11
we're right in our analysis of their prospects, they'll be right in a shorter
2:14
period of time, though it's very hard to say, but I definitely think that the
2:17
businesses are performing incredibly well that we own, and we're starting to
2:20
see a little bit of that multiple appreciation, uh, which could be the
2:23
start of a trend. But we'll have to see.
2:24
Could you talk a bit more about that curatorial process, to borrow a word
2:28
that you use there, though, the way that you look at companies and sort of what
2:30
you're looking to add to the portfolio? Absolutely.
2:32
So at Pershing Square, we've basically had a library for the last two decades
2:36
of what we would say would be 3 to 400 of the world's great businesses, great
2:40
businesses, in our view, our businesses that have what we call simple,
2:44
predictable free cash flow during of businesses, strong competitive barriers
2:47
to entries or moats run by really high quality management teams, minimal
2:50
amounts of financial leverage where the shareholders ultimately get a lot of
2:53
value from the capital allocation decisions the management team makes.
2:56
We think there's a broad universe of those across the world at its scale,
2:59
maybe 3 to 400. We monitor those companies really every
3:02
single day. Always looking at adding to the library
3:05
for new companies that become available. And we're really just waiting for the
3:08
opportunity to purchase them at attractive prices.
3:10
So this year, where there's been a small number of companies that have driven the
3:13
stock market performance, that's really advantageous to our strategy because we
3:17
get businesses that are some of the world's great businesses that are on
3:20
sale at prices that we would not probably have guessed they'd become
3:23
available at the start of. To the compliment to that concentration
3:25
that we talk so much about. Absolutely.
3:27
So I'm sure you don't want to give any names away.
3:28
You're very much so allowed to. I don't think this is a market that will
3:31
front run you, but I wonder what is on the watch list.
3:34
And if you can't see it, what's in the library?
3:36
And if you can't see specific companies, like what type of companies?
3:39
Is there a sector, for example, that you have your eye on?
3:42
Well, one of the things that a very high level is, I think that when you look at
3:45
a lot of the stocks that have historically grown their earnings at 15
3:48
plus percent a year, where they would not really be affected by what happens
3:52
in I, grows even larger than some of the biggest bulls think, or if I maybe is
3:57
more in line with some of the bears, I think those businesses would probably
4:00
produce the same level of earnings over time.
4:02
A lot of those businesses are completely outside of the eye space, and they've
4:05
really just been ignored. So to give you one example of something
4:07
that we have purchased, we've talked about before is a company called Alcon,
4:10
which is a contact lens manufacturer. And they also do a lot of things
4:14
involved with cataract surgery. That business, we think, is one that can
4:17
grow its earnings at a high teens rate. Very strong revenue growth, very stable.
4:21
As you have a world that is emerging that needs a lot more eyecare in
4:24
totality. It's a duopoly effectively, and they
4:27
have an opportunity to improve their profit margins significantly.
4:29
We've watched this business for since it spun out in 2019 from Novartis, never
4:33
had the opportunity to buy it because it's been a great business run by a very
4:36
good management team, but always treated a multiple that was a little too high as
4:39
people were excited. This year, it feels like that whole
4:42
sector in medtech or healthcare has really been thrown by the wayside as
4:45
people are focusing on things like I. So that's an example of something we've
4:48
had an opportunity to step in and buy a business.
4:49
We've watched for nearly a decade that has had very good business progress, but
4:54
was always too expensive and now has become available for what we think is a
4:56
very, very attractive price. We're going to come back and talk about
4:59
a few more companies and specific those that are you've checked out of the
5:00
a few more companies and specific those that are you've checked out of the
5:01
library, shall we say. But let me just ask about the economic
5:04
environment that we're in right now and what concern, if any, that's kind of
5:06
giving you at this moment. We were talking about inflation a moment
5:09
ago, the health of the consumer. Any red lights or alarm sounding that
5:13
you that you see right now, I wouldn't necessarily use the words red lights or
5:16
alarms, but I think it's a very interesting backdrop that we probably
5:19
haven't seen in a while. And I would say it's an incredibly
5:21
bifurcated economy. So if you decompose sort of GDP, uh, 70%
5:26
of economy is generally driven by consumer spending.
5:28
You are seeing a lot of pressure, and you can see this in sort of the
5:31
government macro data. You can also see in individual companies
5:33
about people are saying the cost of living is very high.
5:36
Wages are actually not keeping up with the inflation, which is a relatively new
5:40
development. So people's real incomes that they can
5:42
spend are going down. And so in order to finance the goods
5:45
that they need, the services that most consumers need, they're actually having
5:48
to borrow or they're having to reduce the amount that they can save, which is
5:52
generally not a sign of great health. At the same time, you're also seeing
5:56
just a lot of weakness in sectors that depend upon financing.
6:00
Housing is very weak. Automobile sales.
6:02
Things that require the cost of capital to be lower for purchases.
6:05
Those are struggling right now on a higher than normal rate environment, at
6:08
least as judged by the last 20 years. On the other hand, you have this high
6:13
growth and infrastructure that is simply unbelievable and doesn't seem to at all
6:18
be impacted by higher rates. And it's not really clear, even if you
6:21
doubled the federal funds rate, whether that would have any impact on slowing
6:23
down a lot of this build out of growth. That is really what's holding up the
6:27
economy right now. And so it's not a typical economic
6:30
environment where you have a large portion of the economy that is actually
6:33
being hurt by higher rates. But you have another part of the economy
6:37
that, even if you raised rates significantly, may not slow down at all.
6:40
And how you solve that seems to be a real puzzle.
6:43
The rate insensitivity has been remarkable and probably is for this fed
6:46
to it. And look, I know approaching square,
6:48
every now and then you'll have a macro layer, kind of a hedge that you'll put
6:51
on your portfolio. I know you've described it before is
6:53
something that will be just episodic when you have asymmetric information.
6:57
The Covid trade to put on CDs. I think many have tagged that as kind of
7:02
an epic trade. That paid off handsomely.
7:04
Is there anything that you're eyeing now?
7:06
Is there any sort of macro overlay that might make sense for the portfolio?
7:10
So the work and figuring out what goes into those asymmetric trades, trying to
7:13
come up with a view, what I just described, a bifurcated economy that
7:16
happens every single day. We have a team, including myself and
7:18
Bill, who really work on that at Pershing Square.
7:21
But in order to actually put on one of those trades, we need two things to
7:24
happen. One is we need to have a differentiated
7:26
perspective about what the world might ultimately turn out to look like versus
7:31
what a lot of people think is the case. And then secondly, we need to find an
7:34
instrument that is trading at a very attractive price so that if we're
7:37
correct in our analysis, we can have these huge asymmetric returns in terms
7:40
of making many multiples of the capital that we put in.
7:43
I would say right now we're not sure we have a differentiated perspective, but
7:46
as I mentioned, we're seeing some things that are quite interesting that we're
7:48
carefully following. But the pricing of those instruments
7:51
that we need that is not yet come at a level where we think it's very
7:54
attractive. And so when those two things line up,
7:56
well, we'll have something to do. And if not, we'll just continue to
7:58
patiently study and and wait until an opportunity appears.
8:01
Pershing square is currently working on a new fund that will give investors
8:04
access to pre-IPO companies. Ryan Israel, the firm's chief investment
8:08
officer, is back with us. The overall market for private markets
8:12
at this moment is. Concerns about exiting where the
8:15
opportunities are beyond I, and I wonder how you're thinking about it as you
8:19
build this strategy. Why start this now?
8:22
And what are you looking at? Sure.
8:23
So really, the way that the strategy has started is really the way that any
8:26
strategy at Pershing Square starts, which is we look at what are we already
8:28
doing internally that we can further leverage in order to do something more?
8:32
So, for example, we've really been doing a lot of work in the AI space for some
8:36
of our historical investments. A lot of the hyperscalers and other
8:38
companies that touch AI. The more work that we have done on those
8:41
businesses, the more we started to develop a framework for what good an AI
8:45
looks like. At the same time, there are so many
8:47
large and emerging private companies that could be among some of the largest
8:50
companies in the world, certainly the S&P 500 if they were public.
8:54
So we've really had to diligence those companies.
8:56
So we find ourselves increasingly doing work on private companies and then
8:59
having a public markets perspective that can actually be very value added to the
9:01
CEOs. A lot of these private companies, we
9:03
felt there's a natural synergy there to ultimately say, why don't we start
9:06
investing in later stage growth companies and VC companies more broadly?
9:10
And that's really what Pershing Square Ventures is going to reflect.
9:13
Dan is just back from L.A. We want to ask you about Netflix, which
9:15
is one of the fund's holdings, and we saw news of layoffs yesterday.
9:19
I also go back to the letter, the memo that you wrote a few months back saying
9:22
Netflix had effectively won the streaming wars, has what's happened over
9:25
these last few months, both in terms of the composition of the company and the
9:28
commentary that we've gotten about content.
9:30
Change your perspective. Our strategy when it comes to Netflix
9:33
know we're really excited about the long term opportunity for Netflix.
9:36
I think one of the things that's interesting sometimes in financial
9:38
markets is people get very focused on shorter term metrics that may not
9:42
necessarily be indicative of longer term value.
9:44
So, for example, in Netflix, a lot of people are concerned that what they call
9:48
engagement or the amount of time people are spending per month watching Netflix
9:50
has come down a little bit. However, Netflix doesn't directly get
9:54
paid based upon that single metric. They get a subscription fee where people
9:57
pay a certain amount of money based on where you are around the world each
10:00
pay a certain amount of money based on where you are around the world each
10:00
month in order to watch Netflix. Longer term, Netflix, we believe,
10:04
established a moat because they have this history where they have been
10:07
investing in content for really the last 15 years, an enormous scale larger than
10:10
anybody else. So another way to think about it is when
10:12
they have a larger user base by a factor of two, they can afford to, on a per
10:17
user basis, spend way more money than the next competitor, but they charge the
10:21
same price per user as all the other competitors.
10:23
Another way of saying that if you have a subscription to Netflix, you're getting
10:26
much more value for your money than in any other service.
10:28
Every new person who comes to Netflix or subscribe gets the benefit of the last
10:32
two decades worth of content investments they've made, plus all the new shows
10:36
over time. That really gives them enormous cost
10:38
advantage when they're developing new content per subscriber and can also be
10:41
reflected in higher profit margins. We think that this company is really
10:44
trading at some of the lowest levels it's traded at, in terms of its multiple
10:47
earnings per share in history, at a time in which the fundamental business
10:50
performance is very strong. Revenues are still growing at a double
10:54
digit rate. The company is expanding operating
10:56
profit margins significantly. We think this is a business that could
10:59
grow its earnings at 25% a year, potentially for at least the next
11:03
several years. Emily in Paris continues.
11:05
I don't know where. I'm sure, I'm sure that's a huge part of
11:07
Ryan Ryan's thesis. Is Emily in Paris?
11:10
Does that mean you've been buying then? That sounds like one of your
11:12
opportunities as you like trading to have.
11:15
Are you backing up the truck, loading up on Netflix and the sell off so that that
11:18
is something that we have been buying in the funds?
11:20
We've established a position kind of mid-year on that and something we've
11:23
been very excited about. And obviously, one of the things that we
11:25
like about our strategy is we can buy enough where it's meaningful now.
11:28
And to the extent that it first doesn't go up and the first move is down, we
11:31
have the opportunity to buy even more if we continue to like the business.
11:34
So if you think they have the luxury of being able to spend that, the business
11:37
is good. What did you make of the news that that
11:39
David mentioned that they've laid off about 1000 jobs, and that includes some
11:43
of the executives on both TV and film, because that feels like them almost
11:47
saying, yeah, we have a content problem and we're shaking things up.
11:50
So the way we look at that is that's actually how Netflix has always
11:53
operated, which is very distinct for a lot of companies.
11:55
Reed Hastings wrote this very famous Netflix culture deck maybe 15 or 20
11:59
years ago when she described that Netflix is going to operate differently.
12:01
They were going to have very high performance culture and standards, and
12:05
people needed to make sure they were constantly improving themselves, adding
12:08
value to the business, or ultimately they were going to ask them to leave and
12:11
bring in other people. It's a very different operating
12:13
philosophy than I would say most of corporate America has.
12:16
But these layoffs for some companies might signal a problem for Netflix.
12:19
It's really just an ongoing way in which the business has operated for several
12:22
decades. If I could just, you know, as we reach
12:24
our final minute here. So just ask for big picture about the
12:27
fund. The performance itself is essentially
12:30
flat since you launched, but the market hasn't treated it this way.
12:33
This is something that Bill has discussed very widely of this discount
12:36
to not really being the thing that has dragged the value down.
12:40
And I just wonder what you make of the market's treatment of it and the overall
12:43
fund's performance since launch. Sure.
12:45
So I think you're absolutely right. There's been a bifurcation between the
12:47
performance of the underlying investments or the Nav, if you will, the
12:50
net asset value of the fund, which has been strong, and the discount, which
12:53
both of which, you know, compared to the share price, which has been relatively
12:56
weak. I think we were the kind of the first
12:58
company that is trading where we're able to bring effectively the hedge fund like
13:02
returns to the public markets and individual investors at only a
13:06
relatively low cost. When you have a sample set of one, it's
13:09
a little hard for sometimes people to understand the comparisons.
13:11
We are actively working to close that discount.
13:13
It's very important to us that everybody who is an investor in that IPO does well
13:16
over time. And part of that, particularly in the
13:18
short term, is a discount, which we're actively looking to address over the
13:22
longer term, though, what's interesting, much like stocks where they're
13:24
ultimately tethered to their earnings growth over time, is called one of your
13:27
time, similar with PSU as the Now, which reflects ultimately the growth in each
13:32
of the investments that we own per share over time.
13:34
If we were to grow at a very high rate, our stock returns something close to
13:37
20%. Even if that discount decided not to
13:40
narrow, you would still earn from today you know, nearly 20% return over time.
13:44
If we get a little bit more, that discount narrowing, you might earn even
13:46
better than that. But ultimately, the Nav performance will
13:48
be the thing that drives the long term growth in terms of shareholder returns
13:52
for us. You're pretty excited for this earnings
13:53
season. Might we get some of that in some of
13:55
these companies you hold. I'm certainly hoping hoping that that's
13:57
the case. Ryan, thank you so much for joining.
13:59
Such a pleasure.
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来源：Bloomberg：Technology · bloomberg.com