Tomer Tunguz 分析 AI 初创公司在融资市场是否存在估值溢价
Does an AI Premium Exist in the Fundraising Market?
Tomer Tunguz 分析认为 AI 初创公司相对传统软件公司并没有估值溢价。他对比了过去 12 年美国软件公司与 AI 公司各阶段的 75 分位估值，Seed 和 A 轮两者估值完全一致，整体相关性达 0.98；Series B 阶段 AI 估值曾在 12 年里两次因少数离群案例飙升，其余时间同样同步。他认为 AI 的吸引力在于潜在的天文数字级收入增长，真正抓住新需求的业务才能获得估值溢价。
In short : AI startups do not command a valuation premium over traditional software companies, despite market perceptions.
If a company adds AI to their pitch or nabs a .ai domain, will they raise money at a higher valuation?
Nvidia’s sudden surge to $1t in market capitalization in the public market suggests it could be the case.
The data tells a different story. I plotted the 75th percentile valuation of all US software companies by stage compared to AI companies over the last twelve years.
| Stage | Valuation Correlation, R^2 |
|---|---|
| Seed | 0.99 |
| A | 0.99 |
| B | 0.83 |
| All Early | 0.98 |
Seed & A stage companies’ valuations are identical across these two sectors. Series B AI prices surged twice in the last 12 years, driven by a handful of outliers, but otherwise, they also move in lockstep. Across all of them, the correlation is 0.98.
The appeal of AI isn’t just the technology.
Rather, potential astronomical revenue growth fuels valuations by bringing software to new categories & by serving new unmet interest & voracious demand.
The businesses capturing that demand will command massive valuation premiums.
Even with an AI moniker adorning the pitch deck, a software company is a software company.
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来源：Tomer Tunguz 博客 · tomtunguz.com