AI 公司的公开市场与私募市场估值溢价
AI Public & Private Premia for AI Companies
有 AI 产品或战略的上市公司远期估值倍数约为非 AI 同行的两倍，GenAI 初创公司在 Series A 的投后估值约为所有软件公司的 1.5-2 倍，占 2024 年 Series A 的约 30%。
In short : AI companies trade at higher multiples than non-AI peers, with GenAI startups seeing significant valuation boosts in private markets.
We’ve been tracking the performance of publicly traded AI companies since the beginning of the year. Publicly traded companies with AI products or strategies trade at about twice the forward multiple of non-AI peers.1
Within the private markets, the same is true within the Series A. GenAI startup companies raise at about 1.5-2x the post-money valuations of all software companies.2 These businesses represent about 30% of Series As in 2024.
The rationale behind these higher prices rest in the idea that AI companies have signficant future growth & likely faster growth than their non-AI peers both public & private.
Most of the time, the private tends to lead the public market with trends & valuations. Not this time. The markets are moving in parallel. This is likely because the major AI publics like NVIDIA & Microsoft have spurred the market forward first.
Should the multiples remain roughly the same in both arenas this means that there is no kink in the valuation curve between public & private markets. During the last decade, the private markets often applied higher multiples to privates than the publics & this has created an overhang - a need for private companies to grow into their valuations as they approach IPO.
1 Forward multiple is the enterprise value divided by the forward revenue estimate. 2 Pitchbook Series A data as of publication date.
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来源：Tomer Tunguz 博客 · tomtunguz.com