Oak Hill Advisors CEO：AI 融资将需要对接全球市场
AI Financing Will Need To Tap Global Markets: August
Oak Hill Advisors 创始人兼 CEO Glenn August 在 Bloomberg Deals 节目中表示，AI 融资将需要对接全球市场。他在加州 Beverly Hills 的 CAIS Summit 上指出，CCC 级债券与美债利差已扩大至 SVB 危机以来最宽，高收益债绝对收益率超过 8%，信用市场呈现明显分化。
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AI Financing Will Need To Tap Global Markets: August
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Bloomberg Deals • Oct 14th, 2026
AI Financing Will Need To Tap Global Markets: August
Glenn August, founder & CEO at Oak Hill Advisors, joins Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Deals." They speak CAIS Summit in Beverly Hills, California.
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0:00
Just the overall environment. I want to start with that because we
0:02
have this hawkish posture from the fed that's meant rates have gone higher than
0:07
in debt markets. Triple C's now with the widest spread to
0:10
treasuries since the SVB crisis. I wonder for you, as you look at how
0:14
that impacts private credit, is there an opportunity in that, or is it the start
0:19
of systemic weakening more broadly across the credit landscape?
0:22
So I think you have to you made the question about private credit to start.
0:26
I would make it a broader comment first and talk about the broader below
0:32
investment grade credit markets, because when you start deciding where Triple C's
0:37
are the most, that's in the liquid loan and high yield market, right.
0:40
And today, about 10%, 8 to 10% of the market is trading at triple C levels.
0:46
And what I talk a lot about is the bifurcation of the credit markets,
0:51
because high quality is actually trading at second and third decile of tight
0:55
spreads. But the triple C bucket where there's a
0:58
lot of concern is actually trading at the 10th decile spreads.
1:02
So what I'd first start by saying is that there is opportunity in both
1:06
segments of the market, because with rising rates, the absolute yield now for
1:11
high yield is over 8% for double B credits, over 7%.
1:15
And we're actually seeing a lot of institutional investors who have a 7%
1:19
target of return for their pension plan, allocate more capital to liquid and
1:23
multi-tracked credit. So that's the first thing I'd say.
1:26
The second thing I'd say is that the nature of the triple C market is such
1:32
that there's actually some really interesting opportunities there, both as
1:35
a trading matter or as a shorter term matter and as a long term capital
1:40
solutions opportunity, which has a private credit feel to it.
1:45
If you look at the high yield market today, only 5% of the high yield market
1:49
is trading at stressed and distressed levels.
1:51
And it's actually the low end over five, ten, 20 years.
1:55
The bank loan market is trading about 9% below 80 stress levels, distress levels.
2:02
And that's actually right in the middle to higher end of where we've been.
2:06
And that got moved because the software sector and the I rest four points of the
2:10
nine points are software. So really if you took that out, it's 5%.
2:14
So there's lots of opportunity from a stress distress standpoint to identify
2:19
the opportunities in that triple C bucket, because a lot of people are just
2:23
running away from that. And then there's lots of private credit
2:25
opportunities. Well I was going to say I know JP Morgan
2:28
has stats on this. Like the majority of that stress stuff
2:30
is around technology and likely a lot of that is around software.
2:34
I mean, is is a sector specialist. I think it's Bernie Sanders invested.
2:39
Well, I'd make two points just from the JP Morgan data.
2:42
So in the high yield market, the answer is very little technology, very little
2:46
software. On the loan side, 15 to 18% of the loan
2:50
market was software credit right. And of that about 20% of it is trading
2:56
below 80. But today 75% of leveraged loans and
2:59
software is trading above 75. Above 90.
3:02
Excuse me. And so people have realized that there
3:04
are good software companies and bad software companies, the ones trading
3:08
below 80. There are actually some good ones
3:09
amongst those and we're working hard to identify that.
3:12
This is the thing, I'm sure in February of this year when there was the you
3:16
know, there's probably a lot of opportunities since then.
3:20
I mean, at least public markets, they have largely come back for software.
3:23
So the answer is the equity markets have come back.
3:26
The credit markets has been dispersion. So bifurcation is the name of the game
3:31
in the broader credit markets. In software in particular it's all about
3:35
dispersion. And there's still again 20% below 80.
3:38
And now there are 10 or 15 below between 80 and 90.
3:42
And so you can really pick your spots. And we're doing just that.
3:45
Um, by the way, I've seen some estimates, um, one of them $200 billion
3:49
in debt, this one coming from a different oak, an oak tree, $200 billion
3:53
in debt faces a reckoning with rates staying high and maturities approach.
3:57
How were you thinking about a looming maturity wall, especially for 27 in 28,
4:01
people love to talk about the maturity maybe 200 billion coming due, but really
4:06
it's 150 billion that we care about. Okay.
4:09
Because 150 billion is triple C. Yeah the double being single we that's
4:13
maturing. That's not going to be an issue.
4:15
So let's just focus on 150 billion which is a lot of money and 100 billion of
4:18
that is loans. 50 billion approximately is high yield.
4:22
The answer on that front is there's a lot of work to do.
4:26
Because if you could not refinance yourself in the last five years when the
4:30
markets were open, then that would suggest that you have a challenge
4:33
reversing. On the other hand, that's actually a
4:36
great opportunity for stressed and distressed investors because a some of
4:42
those companies will be able to get refinanced.
4:44
So you can buy at discounts and get taken out of par.
4:47
But secondly, the real opportunity is going to be in capital solutions because
4:52
the CLO market, which owns 70% of the bank debt market, they're not eager to
4:58
convert debt into equity. And they will put up capital from time
5:00
convert debt into equity. And they will put up capital from time
5:03
to time. But the real opportunities for new money
5:06
to come in and provide capital to help work out that refinancing and to
5:11
potentially either extend the runway for the existing owner if that owner puts up
5:15
additional equity, or to ultimately convert that into equity, where the new
5:20
money can basically have an equity opportunity.
5:22
And so we very much believe in capital solutions.
5:26
We have a lot of capital today. We're raising additional capital.
5:29
So we think there's real opportunity there just on that because you've also
5:32
expanded into your AI offerings and the products you have.
5:36
Um, earlier this week there were comments from the Broadcom CEO basically
5:39
saying that he thinks that the constraint on the I build out is
5:42
actually going to be the financing of it.
5:44
I entirely agree. Tell me more about that.
5:46
Well, if you think about the size of the financing required to do 3 trillion, 5
5:54
trillion today I heard $10 trillion. If 80 plus percent of that is investment
6:00
grade on 10 trillion, that's 8 trillion. That's almost the size of the entire
6:04
investment grade market. If 20% or 2 trillion is below investment
6:10
grade, the combined loan and high yield market and the entire private credit
6:14
market today is about 5 trillion. That's 40%.
6:17
The market, the investors like ourselves, are not going to allocate 20,
6:22
30, 40, 50% of our portfolios to a correlated strategy.
6:28
In I center, I data center build out where the ultimate chip or the chip
6:33
providers or the ultimate end users like OpenAI or in topic.
6:38
And so I think raising additional capital is going to come at a higher
6:42
price. We'll use the global financial markets
6:45
to to tap into that. We'll also see if we end up really
6:48
spending 5 or $10 trillion and whether or not the markets are going to, not
6:53
just from financing side, but can we find the power, the land, the local
6:59
authorities? Nimby is obviously a lot of concern.
7:01
People are concerned about data centers in their backyard.
7:04
And so, again, we're still in this moment right now where it's early.
7:08
There's interesting opportunity. We are scouring, uh, the markets to find
7:14
opportunities where we think we're getting investment grade risk and
7:17
getting higher returns for that capital. And so in some cases, taking not
7:22
investment grade risk, but getting exceptionally well paid for the capital
7:25
in the energy space. We just did a turbine deal, uh, where we
7:29
bought a, we lent money, uh, against, uh, pool of turbines to power a data
7:35
center. And we believe that world of
7:37
collateralized one and a half to two times to one, and we're going to make a
7:40
mid-teens. We believe we're going to make a
7:42
mid-teens return opportunity. So we're we're there's operating.
7:45
And when there's that amount of capital that needs to get raised, there's always
7:50
different flavors and different. Does any of it, um, concern you?
7:54
I think chip financing comes up a lot. Is one of these areas that's potentially
7:58
more risky and uncertain of any areas like that that you see your peers doing.
8:02
And you say, I wouldn't, I don't I don't comment on what my peers do, um, very
8:07
diplomatically there that that there is a giant demand for compute.
8:12
What's going on is revolutionary, not evolutionary.
8:16
And behind those chip purchases are some of the largest, most successful
8:22
companies in the world the frugal and Amazon in Canada.
8:28
Um, and so again, it's how these finances get structured.
8:33
And are you really getting guaranteed by these super high quality investment
8:38
grade issuers? And there's also a question of, again,
8:42
going back to the capacity in the markets.
8:44
No matter how much you love Amazon or Google, how much do you want to have
8:49
underlying Amazon and Google risk in your portfolio?
8:51
And so again, I think we're going to be in a fascinating time for the next few
8:54
years. We've seen different build outs before.
8:57
There does feel like there's some euphoria in the market that I think,
9:01
again, there'll be some disappointments along the way, but right now there's
9:04
lots to do. Just finally on the those concerns about
9:07
concentration. And I think it's a really interesting
9:10
point. Does that assume then in the future, as
9:13
we get through this build out, that spreads are just going to widen more
9:15
broadly? And maybe Perhaps that means that the
9:18
build out doesn't happen in peace because of the lack of capital needed.
9:22
Well, I'd say that if you're Microsoft or matter where it is a large
9:27
hyperscalers, at the end of the day, if you have to pay 100 basis points extra
9:31
for financing, I don't think it's going to change the demand.
9:33
Yeah. And so there is these capacity
9:37
constraint issues in the financing markets.
9:39
And again, there's a broad ecosystem here.
9:41
There's the hyperscalers is the chip finance.
9:44
And there's the end users. There's the neo cloud's.
9:46
I mean there's a whole range. There's all the power financing
9:50
associated with it. So there's just a lot of different ways
9:53
to think about it. But ultimately, I think what you'll find
9:57
is people will determine that there's a certain amount of their portfolios
10:00
is people will determine that there's a certain amount of their portfolios
10:00
they're willing to allocate to the AI CapEx build out, and that ultimately
10:05
takes them more capital needs to raise. The price is going to have to go higher
10:09
for the non AI CapEx buildout. I think you'll have the regular credit
10:13
cycle. They'll be the relative value, but I
10:15
think they'll be normalized, maybe slightly heightened spreads there.
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