Neostellar 负责人：AI 将迎来此前技术周期中"未见"的大规模普及
AI to See Massive Adoption 'Unseen' in Previous Tech Cycles, Says Neostellar Principal
Neostellar 负责人 Willy Lee 认为，随着 token 价格下降，AI 将迎来此前技术周期中"未见"的大规模普及。他提到 Anthropic 估值约 2 万亿美元，其 ARR 从年初的 9 增长到可能超过 70，OpenAI 与 Anthropic 发布新模型时不仅关注智能水平，也在降低 API 用户成本。
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Oct 6th, 2026
AI to See Massive Adoption 'Unseen' in Previous Tech Cycles, Says Neostellar Principal
American AI companies’ performance lead over China narrowed sharply in past months to a record low after labs such as DeepSeek gained ground, threatening US tech supremacy, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Willy Lee, Principal at Neostellar, offers his view from the VC world when it comes to AI investments and the IPO market.
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0:00
So neo Stellar is a publicly traded venture capital firm.
0:03
Our tickers Nzlr, we are traded on the Nasdaq and we started back in 2012, 2012
0:08
with a vision of trying to give retail investors access to the private markets.
0:12
So we hold names like OpenAI, click, House Zeta.
0:15
Do you want to hold anthropic? I mean, would you buy shares in
0:19
anthropic an IPO? Look, I think so our mandate is focused
0:23
entirely on the private markets, but at anthropic at call it $2 trillion
0:27
valuation. If you look at the numbers that they are
0:30
doing from an AR perspective, they started the year at nine and now it's
0:34
likely over 70. And if you look at that type of growth
0:38
rate on this business, I think I understand where companies are.
0:42
So in school you and I studied William Stanley Jevons, who did sunspots.
0:46
He did a huge thing on marginal mathematics.
0:49
And he also said if the price of the product comes down, demand happens and
0:53
you're a big believer and if token prices come down, up, up and away we go.
0:58
Correct. Yeah.
0:59
I mean, if you look at the way that OpenAI or anthropic are trying to
1:03
release new models. The focus is not only on intelligence,
1:06
but bringing the cost down for users of their API.
1:09
And the reason for that, as you've mentioned, is they're seeing this usage
1:13
increase in the barrier for some of these businesses to adopt is bringing
1:17
down that cost down because they're seeing the ROI.
1:19
They just want to adopt more, right. And be able to utilize that compute.
1:24
When you look at anthropic and OpenAI, they sort of suck all the oxygen out of
1:27
the room when it comes to VC money. What are we not seeing?
1:31
What? There has to be other stuff going on
1:33
here behind closed doors. Yeah.
1:34
I mean, so for this year called the first half of this year, we saw over 400
1:39
billion of venture capital in just the US.
1:42
Right. And call it about half of that was
1:45
dedicated to OpenAI and anthropic grounds.
1:47
So there's 200 billion of this year of venture capital in the first half, just
1:52
the first half compared to call it 2025 of around 260 billion less anthropic and
1:58
OpenAI of fund raising the US. And so there's all these companies that
2:02
are starting to rise up as harnesses, as infrastructure for, uh, all the
2:08
developments that OpenAI and anthropic are leading.
2:10
So we're seeing that in the private markets, companies that are starting to
2:13
get that real momentum and venture capital is recognized.
2:15
So we get so many different ways to go here in a short time.
2:19
What's your timeline? If you have a log x axis with all sorts
2:24
of like short termism to it and out, can you look out to 2030?
2:30
Can you look out the 2035 in terms of AI where it will be, or do you have any
2:37
clue where it will be or the profit model or what the Chinese will do?
2:42
Are you blind? You know, look, I think there's a lot of
2:46
different questions. Uh, I think what we're seeing, even if
2:50
you just look two years ahead because the projections have changed rapidly.
2:54
Yeah. I think what we were talking about, even
2:55
just 12 months ago, even six months ago, is so vastly different from today.
2:59
I think if you were to look out to 2030 and you compare that to, you call it the
3:04
adoption cycles we saw in 2021 or even in the beginning of the 2000, what
3:09
you're seeing is this super cycle of adoption, where companies had an option
3:15
to almost ignore personal computing or the internet for long periods of time.
3:20
I think I is a type of technology where people cannot ignore it in the near
3:24
term. You're going to see massive adoption by
3:26
- The likes of which we haven't seen in
3:29
previous technology cycles, because it's just so hard to ignore, whether it's
3:33
from cybersecurity reasons or from productivity reasons.
3:37
There's so much potential that's being unlocks right now that we haven't seen
3:41
in almost any other technology side. Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned
3:44
cybersecurity because it's actually been outperforming AI.
3:47
And when you when you really look at it recently.
3:49
Um, so if if I is a maturing industry, is it mature yet.
3:54
No we're not. We're still it's nice.
3:56
Sure I think, but where it's a where will the momentum be coming from I
4:00
guess. So I think a lot of the momentum is and
4:03
I've said this even six months ago, is being in the private markets.
4:07
You know, you have these large public companies who have very specific focuses
4:12
on their niche of what they can accomplish.
4:14
And they're adding on I on top of that. If you look in the private markets where
4:17
they don't necessarily have these public market shareholders, they are seeing
4:20
massive explosion in product development where, you know, if you saw a public
4:24
company release five new products sequentially.
4:27
I don't know if that would necessarily be received very well.
4:30
But you're seeing multibillion dollar companies in the private markets drop
4:33
five plus different products in the near term, where they're creating sprawl into
4:37
industries that they believe that they have a right to win in.
4:40
And you're seeing that in the private markets, uh, where valuations are
4:44
increasing because investors see real potential for these companies to win
4:46
those types of market share. So you're just not seeing in the public
4:49
markets, a lot of it is in the private sector really leaning over this.
4:52
One final question. So you're at Brown University and you're
4:56
buried in five courses, including quantum physics and Schrodinger
4:59
equations, and you're taking math 0520 linear algebra.
5:00
equations, and you're taking math 0520 linear algebra.
5:05
Should you use AI in the course, or do you think students should use AI because
5:09
you didn't have it, did you? No, I personally did not have I,
5:13
although I think it would have been very helpful when I was taking this course
5:16
for free. This whole I hysteria, I find just a
5:19
joke. You just test them.
5:21
Yes, I look, I think that type of learning where people are trying to
5:26
learn alongside AI rather than having it do your work entirely, is something that
5:30
schools are trying to figure out themselves.
5:32
Yeah, I think if I look at myself in my own learning of of different topics with
5:38
I, it has been vastly accelerated because of I not totally agree, not just
5:44
testing. Exactly.
5:45
Is it like calculus without the calculator?
5:48
Do you just basically say, here's the test, do it without AI?
5:52
Well, so I think what I has accomplished, which I think teachers
5:56
have been trying to do for a long time, is to create content that is digestible
6:01
for an audience. And I think you guys do an amazing job
6:03
of doing exactly that, which is he's trying
6:07
to bring down some of these topics to way that, you know, is customized for
6:10
how people understand a lot of these things, which is, uh, not overly complex
6:16
because it's important to understand some of those nuances, but it's also
6:19
important to deliver it in a way that's digestible.
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