OpenAI、Anthropic IPO 将如何揭开 AI 经济学的面纱
How the OpenAI, Anthropic IPOs Could Lift the Veil on AI Economics
VistaShares 投资组合经理 David Fetherstonhaugh 表示，投资者正日益寻求大规模 AI 支出产生回报的证明，而 OpenAI、Anthropic 等私营公司让 AI 经济的关键部分不透明。他认为这两家公司最终 IPO 后，将让整个生态系统的透明度提升，使估值与私募投资者视角得以分离。
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Bloomberg Tech • Oct 12th, 2026
How the OpenAI, Anthropic IPOs Could Lift the Veil on AI Economics
VistaShares portfolio manager and DVX Ventures principal David Fetherstonhaugh says investors are increasingly looking for proof that massive AI spending is generating returns. He discusses why private companies like OpenAI and Anthropic leave a key part of the AI economy opaque and how their eventual IPOs could bring greater transparency to the ecosystem. He joins Ed Ludlow on "Bloomberg Tech."
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0:00
The Broadcom CEO saying that, um, actually, investors don't have a very
0:03
good grasp of what it is they're investing in in the field.
0:07
I, I found that to be surprise.
0:12
Yeah, I think it kind of hits on three elements that, you know, we kind of come
0:16
back to quite frequently, which is the first is there's a lot of noise in the
0:20
market and it's really separated. The whole I trade can be the demand
0:24
side, the monetization piece, which is, you know, really three layers.
0:28
It's just are the labs growing and hyperscalers monetize.
0:31
And can you actually prove the application layer and the ROI within
0:35
enterprises? All that kind of changes depending on
0:38
where you are in the layer as to the mix of what you spend it on in the
0:41
infrastructure. But what's really interesting about his
0:44
comments is he's pretty much saying layer one is not public.
0:47
The whole market is kind of operating on this like opacity.
0:50
No one can see what's going on. We saw it last week.
0:52
You kind of covered it last week with the OpenAI accounting announcement.
0:55
And there are our numbers. That's right.
0:57
Um, just the recap on that is that there was a discrepancy on the where they were
1:02
on a calendar basis where they are, uh, but also whether they were reporting
1:06
gross or net revenues. You go back and watch that episode from
1:08
last week. Um, you basically believe it's a good
1:10
thing. Therefore, when OpenAI and anthropic go
1:13
public, it makes it more transparent for the whole ecosystem.
1:18
You can decouple valuation and kind of the private investor lens of when people
1:23
have their entry points. Um, but from an ecosystem perspective,
1:26
the ROI story, as I kind of mentioned out is the lab are our numbers.
1:30
The second layer is the ROI from the hyperscalers perspective, and the third
1:33
being the monetization layer for apps. You don't really have the first layer
1:40
highly visible. So what people end up doing is grasping
1:42
at the next layer. But the next layer is ROI hyperscalers
1:45
story, which is a multi quarter story. People just started getting comfortable
1:48
with it last quarter. And it's it's not just one quarter.
1:51
The next quarter is always going to be the most important quarter, or this
1:54
quarter is the most important quarter. It's always going to be that way.
1:56
And so you can actually sell consistent growth to you know, as you're even your
2:00
last guest alluded to, there's just the scale of what is going into spend right
2:04
now is getting people a little bit nervous and they want to see ROI.
2:08
So if they can't get ROI from the first layer.
2:10
There's kind of this tension being placed on something that you know is
2:13
taking time to develop and should take time to develop.
2:16
But kind of giving people a little bit time to pause.
2:20
You know, Jensen Huang, the Nvidia CEO, talks about the five layer cake of AI.
2:25
Right? And you're you're talking about
2:26
something similar, which is uh, for some people, it is a choice.
2:30
To their mind, you're in one or another layer you it sounds like it's you, you
2:36
you feel comfortable being invested across the five layers.
2:39
Is that is am I reading that right? Yeah.
2:41
I think the way that we kind of interpret it, and that's a great follow
2:44
up again to your last segment is for the most part, we follow where the capital
2:48
expenditure is going in the industry, where it is today and where we think
2:51
it's going to go in terms of where it's being deployed, where it's being
2:54
deployed. Exactly.
2:55
So if we think that a specific set of CapEx.
2:57
Exactly, we want to actually be investing in the net earners, um, as
3:01
part of what reinforces that flywheel of what I kind of view is like demand and
3:05
delivery. Um, you want to see that there's
3:07
positive signals on monetization to get really comfortable, because as we've
3:10
seen, the scale of what's going into, um, the earners of CapEx is just so
3:15
large, you know. Um, so people are starting to look now
3:18
for the ROI on the actual demand side of things.
3:20
But for the most part, all it changes really, is when you move from, you know,
3:25
frontier lab IRR to hyperscale or ROI to app monetization.
3:30
It reinforces the delivery mechanisms, which is all the chips, the networking,
3:34
the cooling. Um, even the debate of open source
3:37
versus closed source is kind of a delivery, a delivery mechanism, but it
3:40
just changes the composition of where you are and what you need as part of the
3:45
the actual physical makeup. It doesn't actually replace the
3:49
physical, the need for the physical makeup.
3:51
It's really a reinforcing loop. Um, so that's why there's this constant
3:54
tension that you're seeing within the scale of, you know, the investment
3:58
dollars of what's going into the industry and people looking to make sure
4:01
that there's an actual ROI to it. I just ask you about that.
4:04
You said dollars. Yeah, yeah.
4:05
Everything that we talk about in this context, micro is largely focused on
4:09
what's happening here in the US. I'm not even talking about China,
4:12
really. I'm talking about, you know, we hardly
4:14
ever talk about Europe or other jurisdictions from an investment
4:18
opportunity standpoint. do you look outside of the US?
4:21
Yeah, most of it close to a majority of our holdings are international.
4:25
And that was part of our thesis originally.
4:28
Um, when we initially launched the fund in December 2024, it was really around
4:31
this idea that a lot of us investors couldn't actually get exposure to some
4:35
of the really critical kind of like what we call a crown jewels of the eye trade
4:38
at the time. Um, those are the companies in Taiwan,
4:41
South Korea. Um, and a lot of, you know, providing
4:44
exposure to that was, again, on a proportional basis of what was going
4:47
into a data center. We kind of viewed that memory was kind
4:50
of this very strong bottleneck. There was no real price alleviation that
4:54
was happening. And you can still see it.
4:56
A lot of you know, the earnings, 1924 was back in 2020 for a lot of the
5:00
A lot of you know, the earnings, 1924 was back in 2020 for a lot of the
5:00
improvement in the underlying fundamentals of the company has actually
5:03
not been on quantity. It's been on price.
5:04
Um, so a lot of margin expansion, you can even see with micron earnings like
5:08
it's exceptionally strong gross margins. Um, so we've kind of been tracking a lot
5:13
of this global supply chain trade and really following the dollars of where we
5:17
think it's going to be today, but not only say where we think it's going to
5:19
go, um, in the future. And that's kind of the critical piece of
5:22
understanding the different layers of monetization.
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