DBS 首席投资官谈 AI、债券与市场风险
DBS CIO on AI, Bonds and Market Risks
DBS 集团首席投资官 Hou Wey Fook 表示，AI 驱动的盈利增长仍在支撑大型科技股，其中 Nvidia 明年盈利增速约 70%，市盈率仅十几倍，因此不认为存在泡沫。他同时指出，投资级债券收益率超过 5%，可作为收益与组合稳定性的来源，并建议采用"杠铃"策略平衡股票波动。
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Oct 5th, 2026
DBS CIO on AI, Bonds and Market Risks
DBS Group Chief Investment Officer Hou Wey Fook says AI-led earnings growth continues to underpin major technology stocks while investment-grade bonds yielding above 5% offer an attractive source of income and portfolio stability. He joined Bloomberg's Insight with Haslinda Amin
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0:00
We have yields at multi-decade highs. And Texas.
0:04
So what? Well the technology sector if you look
0:07
at the underlying earnings they are growing by like 50% also.
0:12
And in the case of Nvidia which is really at the epicenter of the entire
0:17
ecosystem, you know, uh, we are talking about 70% earnings growth for next year,
0:22
if not for the memory stock shortage and this and that kind of shortages, they
0:27
are going to grow at triple digit kind of returns.
0:29
So you're talking about Nvidia at the epicenter trading at mid-teens on a p e
0:36
basis. So lots of clients have been asking me
0:39
oh is this a bubble. If I describe, you know, the poster
0:44
child of AI being trading at Meet These, how can it be a bubble?
0:49
Compare that to what was the poster child, uh, during the internet boom?
0:53
Cisco. It was before that all collapsed,
0:56
trading at 100 times. So I think there is still, you know,
0:59
tailwinds to this play on the semiconductor display on I.
1:04
But the question is whether you still go all in.
1:06
That's been the trait for a lot of people.
1:08
Do you still do that right now? Yeah.
1:10
I think, uh, the way to kind of look at the entire portfolio construct is, uh,
1:15
what we call barbell. So our clients are looking to us to
1:19
generate absolute returns over a market cycle,
1:22
not relative. So the way we construct that portfolio
1:25
is this on the growth or the capital gain compounded side of the portfolio by
1:31
the way I related stocks okay. Do you want to give you multiple
1:35
returns. But it has a lot of embedded volatility
1:39
in it as well. So the way to kind of you know you know,
1:43
really control the overall kind of volatility of the portfolio is to have
1:48
on the other end of the portfolio, uh, fixed income, you know, give you
1:52
consistent, uh, income and now use of 5%.
1:55
No, it's it's very, very interesting. At the middle we would have what we call
2:00
risk diversify. Uh, goal is one.
2:03
Hedge funds is the other. So you've got this sort of return call L
2:06
for it does not beat returns. You've got this source of interest
2:10
income very consistent. And that overall kind of, uh, you know,
2:14
makes the portfolio stable. Before we talk about fixed income and
2:18
the other asset classes for equity markets, though, is there a yield level
2:22
that would eventually break it? I think is already breaking a large part
2:26
of the equity market. The non-tech moving that.
2:29
Yeah. So if you are growing in, uh, single
2:32
digits, for example, I think you are quite, well, honorable because the you
2:36
get favors holding, uh, you know, bonds or investment group bonds of those
2:40
companies rather than the equities of those companies.
2:43
You talk about how the fixed income market is looking pretty interesting.
2:46
What is exactly. Well, the absolute you is 5% north,
2:51
right. Uh, and if you were to buy investment
2:53
grade, you know, a portfolio of good triple B names, for example, you're
2:57
getting north of 6%. To me, that's unheard of in the last two
3:01
decades, you know. So we we like it as a, uh, stabilizer of
3:06
returns for the entire world for you. So lock it in as soon as possible.
3:10
We like, uh, you know, we were in the 2 to 4 year kind of maturity or duration.
3:15
Today we are in the 5 to 7. We think that's the sweet spot.
3:19
Do not go to the ultra long because I think that the risk reward is not that
3:23
favorable, given that the the Treasury, you know, the U.S.
3:27
Treasury will have to issue a lot of bonds to fund the deficit.
3:30
So that's going to be that supply. And therefore, you know, uh, it's going
3:34
to be some, uh, pressure for upward pressure on yields.
3:37
But we are you not taking notice of the messaging or the warning that is being
3:42
sent by the bond market? If you take a look at the junk bonds in
3:46
particular, the junk is a bond and does a volatility.
3:49
It's something that, you know, we've not seen since the banking crisis that is
3:54
sending a strong message isn't it. Yeah.
3:56
So the way to kind of, uh, you know, position ourselves here is go for
4:00
quality. You know, and in the, uh, fixed income
4:04
space, we like investment grade. If you want to have a little bit more
4:07
yield than the Triple B's would be, or the upper tier Double B's would be the
4:10
sweet spot. Uh, do not go into the single B's or the
4:13
triple C's. So that's where it's a little bit more
4:16
exposed. So really go into the best in class
4:19
companies in the fixed income you know sweet spot triple double V on the equity
4:24
side. Again the best in class technology
4:26
companies. Let's take a look at one of the risks
4:28
that's being well some say underpriced oil prices elevated remaining at or
4:34
above 00 a barrel. Why is that not impacting sentiment?
4:39
Yeah, this is a good question because in the past, whenever there is a middle
4:42
East crisis, the transmission of volatility is through the oil price.
4:47
Today, oil prices have gone up from like $60 to 100 within a year.
4:52
Uh, we have not yet seen, uh, I would say, uh, a major impact on financial
4:57
assets? Uh, to a large extent.
5:00
assets? Uh, to a large extent.
5:00
You know, technology was the driver because of the earnings overwhelming.
5:03
Uh, the headwinds coming from oil price and interest rates.
5:07
Now, we are, uh, we are of the belief as well that, uh, you know, AI is
5:13
disinflationary in the long term. So what the central banks are doing
5:18
today is really to tackle or to curb the short term high inflation pressures.
5:23
Uh, we do see another 2 to 25 basis points rate over the next six months
5:27
before the fact kind of peaks out in terms of interest rate cycle, because at
5:31
the end of the day I will be disinflationary.
5:33
So for now, yeah, a bit off of that kind of, uh, upward pressure on rates.
5:39
But, uh, I don't think we are far away from the peak from, uh, DBS is back with
5:43
us. Wait for your thoughts on what's
5:44
happening in Brazil. Might that have implications for the
5:47
rest of the EMS? So if you look at the emerging market
5:50
bloc, uh, really what's propelling the market is semiconductors, so the likes
5:55
of Taiwan and Korea are the main beneficiaries.
5:58
So the entire M bought lot block uh would need some catalysts.
6:03
And now we are facing what we call uh, headwinds coming from a stronger U.S.
6:08
dollar, higher interest rates to the extent that, you know, uh, there's not
6:12
much of, uh, capital coming into this smaller kind of region, you know,
6:16
compared to the big, uh, heavyweights of our US, uh, market.
6:22
Uh, we need that to kind of, uh, become, you know, kind of, uh, become a tailwind
6:26
or other stabilize. So if the fed were to kind of slow down
6:30
the rate hikes and the dollar kind of come off, I think that would be indeed a
6:35
good, uh, setting for for emerging market on a broad base.
6:38
But the thing is, it wasn't too long ago that we were talking about the
6:41
reallocation of capital, especially from the US to the rest of the world,
6:46
especially in Asia. What happened to that story?
6:49
I think the story has worked out, but it's a very selective sector.
6:52
So semiconductors in specific countries and to some extent also the, uh, I would
6:58
say specific, uh, countries within the region that has these value, uh,
7:01
policies, like in the case of, uh, Singapore, you know, Ictp uh, help, uh,
7:07
the market, uh, a fair bit. Uh, banks, for example, did very well.
7:11
And on the back of this. So we need to look at local, uh, markets
7:16
with their policies, uh, to kind of, uh, reduce that discount on emerging market
7:20
valuations. Uh, I just two chip, these are the, uh,
7:24
uh, us, for example, are, you know, historically.
7:27
So but we need catalysts. And uh, the meek at least would be, you
7:32
know, the dollar kind of beat out. Uh, interest rates in us, you know, also
7:36
coming back down, uh, as well as, you know, at the local level, we need to see
7:40
more of these value up. So we continue to talk about dominant
7:44
dollar as opposed to dollarization. Yes.
7:48
Uh, yeah. There has been a lot of fear in the, you
7:51
know, recent times about, you know, uh, the, uh, you know, demonetization.
7:56
Uh, that's why we think gold has a place.
7:59
Uh, this this trend of central banks buying up gold, uh, has not in any way
8:04
ended. You know, the society in India buying.
8:07
We think that it's going to be a good, uh, I would say support for, for gold in
8:12
the long term. Uh, gold will I mean, dollar will always
8:16
be around. I mean, you you you know, you need the
8:19
only advice I will give is, you know, whatever currencies you have, deploy it,
8:23
deploy into financial assets, you know, uh, and really, uh, make the best out of
8:28
it, uh, instead of just sitting on cash. If you are betting on emerging markets,
8:32
which ones in particular, apart from the tech plays, I mean, where would you be
8:37
investing? I mean, right now we're seeing, you
8:39
know, India and Indonesia being pretty lacklustre.
8:42
No science in sight, no castles in sight to actually change that situation.
8:47
So we have yet to really, you know, uh, see uh, Strong policies to support the
8:53
local markets in these countries. But the way to kind of anchor, uh,
8:57
construct a portfolio of Asian, uh, assets is, again, the barbell approach,
9:02
you know, on one end, you know, semiconductor, I believe, on the other,
9:05
dividend yielding stocks, in any case, you know, Asia, for example, is really a
9:09
fertile ground for dividend yielding stocks.
9:11
For example, in Singapore you are getting in excess of 5 or 6% in
9:16
Singapore dollar terms. Now, if you are a dollar based investor,
9:19
you swap that into US dollars. You're getting 8%.
9:22
It's like, wow. We felt very quickly from my
9:25
conversation with the finance minister, we did talk about how, you know, the
9:29
Indonesian rupiah has remained at 18,000, uh, versus the USD.
9:33
And that is among, you know, the weakest levels in history.
9:37
Do you expect the rupiah to kind of turn around quickly?
9:40
Yeah, it has stabilized somewhat now. But again, emerging market uh,
9:44
currencies is has this depreciation trend.
9:46
So you got to be rewarded for that with interest rates.
9:50
We thank you so much for your time.
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