纽约大学 Stern 商学院教授、被称为“估值院长”的 Aswath Damodaran 指出,AI 若成功,其 10 万亿至 15 万亿美元的可寻址市场其实“令人恐惧”。因为这一规模只有在 AI 取代人类工作而非仅作为工具时才能实现,届时半数白领将失业,社会将面临收入与人生意义双重流失的问题。
The $10-$15 trillion total addressable market for AI, if it is successful, is actually "terrifying".
- The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business.
The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from.
"The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people.
If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world.
Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services?
If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.."
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Video from "Excess Returns" podcast Youtube channel (link in comment)
来源:Rohan Paul · x.com