Matthew Green：AI 带来密码学惊喜，人类更换标准的速度远远跟不上
Quoting Matthew Green
密码学家 Matthew Green 提出，有 1% 的概率我们生活在公钥加密不可能实现的 Minicrypt 世界，另有 15% 的概率会实质性地对现有公钥加密算法失去信心。他认为 AI 制造意外的速度与人类更换标准的速度相差数个数量级，只有提前做好准备才能从这类意外中恢复。
9th October 2026
Everyone is very concerned about being respectable, so I’m going to be the goofball who raises worst-case possibilities. I think there is a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, and a 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms. [...]
The problem here is that the speed of AI producing surprises, and the speed of human beings replacing standards (even with the very best AI assistance) are just orders of magnitude different. You only recover from a surprise like this if you do the preparation in advance.
— Matthew Green, on Twitter. I looked it up and Minicrypt is Russell Impagliazzo’s hypothetical world in which public-key encryption is impossible.
来源：Simon Willison 博客 · simonwillison.net