2024 年初 AI 初创公司估值突然重估
The Sudden Repricing of Startups in Early 2024
2024 年初，AI 初创公司相比非 AI 公司正获得更高估值和增长预期，公开市场上 AI 公司交易倍数为非 AI 公司的 2.5 倍。AI 软件公司 2024 年预计增速比非 AI 软件公司快 63%，AI 公司 100x ARR 倍数回归，这一变化仅发生在最近几周。Microsoft 与 ServiceNow 分别报告组织生产力提升 70% 和 50%。
In short : AI startups are commanding higher valuations and growth rates compared to non-AI companies in early 2024.
We’re entering a new pricing environment for software: AI vs non-AI. It’s only happened in the last few weeks.
Recent earnings have pushed some of the most important companies to all-time highs.
| Company | Performance |
|---|---|
| Confluent | 34% |
| Cloudflare | 21% |
| ServiceNow | 20% |
| Microsoft | 14% |
This dynamic doesn’t favor everyone.
Theory created a public market AI index to track software companies who have significant product plans or current AI businesses.
AI companies trade at 2.5x the multiple of non-AI companies in the public market.
This yawning difference should compound over time as the adoption of AI is still relatively early - we’re only 18 months into it. In addition, the productivity gains & the concomitant willingness to pay for them is just getting started.
Microsoft & ServiceNow have reported 70% & 50% improvement in productivity in their organizations.
This dynamic is permeating the early stage private markets just as rapidly with the return of the 100x ARR multiple for AI companies.
| Type | Mean Projected Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| Non-AI | 14% |
| AI | 23% |
The reason is the expected growth rate. AI software companies are projected to grow 63% faster in 2024 than non-AI software companies because of customer demand.
We should expect an elevated valuation environment in Q1 & Q2 as the buyer population expresses strong demand for AI.
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来源：Tomer Tunguz 博客 · tomtunguz.com