arXiv：cs.AI· Jianing Long, Xiaobin Li, Wuming Lei, Weiguang Wang·· 4 小时前AI 评分30
联合上界覆盖率与路径选择效用：两项城市代理任务的实证评估
Joint upper-bound coverage and route-choice utility: an empirical evaluation on two urban proxy tasks
AI 导读
一项冻结协议下的实证评估显示，联合上界覆盖率提升并不等同于路径选择效用改善。在北京和成都各 150 个起终点对、三条候选路径、14 个测试日的代理任务中，联合覆盖率分别从 83.19% 升至 92.26%。
正文
Abstract:Whether more accurate traffic forecasts or higher uncertainty coverage improve route decisions is unclear. We evaluate this question with a frozen protocol that separates speed error, joint candidate path upper bound coverage, route selection, and realized loss. Using processed road speed data from Beijing and Chengdu, we construct offline proxy tasks with 150 origin destination pairs, three candidate paths, and 14 test days per city. We compare raw 90th percentile path time bounds with jointly calibrated upper bounds under minimum bound route choice. Joint coverage rises from 83.19% to 92.26% in Beijing M1, from 75.14% to 88.33% in Chengdu M1, and from 74.01% to 90.64% in Chengdu M2. Yet C2 increases lateness by 0.1633, 0.7848, and 0.9200 percentage points, respectively, and mean travel time by 0.588, 3.082, and 4.418 seconds. In a separate Chengdu predictor comparison, a 14.91% reduction in speed mean absolute error accompanies a 1.4571 percentage point reduction in lateness under C0. Joint coverage is therefore not a surrogate for downstream route utility in these frozen tasks the offline results do not establish online or causal benefits.
| Subjects: | Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computers and Society (cs.CY) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2610.06995 [cs.AI] |
| (or arXiv:2610.06995v1 [cs.AI] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.06995 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) |
Submission history
From: Xiaobin Li [view email]
[v1]
Sun, 4 Oct 2026 07:48:03 UTC (1,030 KB)
来源：arXiv：cs.AI · arxiv.org