Open-source models are already taking the easier tasks. The bull case for frontier labs rests on one question.

"A lot of software engineering, white-collar work in general, does not need Fable 5.1 or Astra 6 level intelligence."

"A lot of businesses, especially lower gross margin businesses, are very rationally making the decision to start offloading some of the easier tasks to these increasingly capable open-source models."

"So whether the frontier labs are a durable business model really comes down to your belief on whether the TAM of new things you can do with increasingly smarter frontier intelligence will outgrow the portion of tasks being offloaded to these cheaper models."

"If you were to magically spawn 100 million superintelligent PhDs who are experts in every field and don't need to eat or sleep, do you think the economy would be able to absorb that relatively quickly and still get high ROI?"