arXiv：cs.AI· Matthew Rendall, Max Hellrigel-Holderbaum, Leonard Dung·· 6 小时前
超级智能与AI竞赛的三重风险
Superintelligence and the Triple Risk of an AI Race
AI 导读
一篇 arXiv 论文提出，美中争夺 AGI 领先地位的竞赛存在三重风险：被对手超越、触发战争，以及人类失去对远比自己智能的智能体的未来控制权，后者可能危及人类生存。论文认为，抢先实现 AGI 会引发安全实践与监管的逐底竞争，而中国目前似乎并未致力于竞赛至超级智能。作者主张美国应优先通过单边与合作方式提升 AI 安全，避免挑起一场全人类都可能输掉的竞赛。
正文
Abstract:On many estimates, artificial general intelligence (AGI) is likely to emerge within the next few decades or even sooner. Once it does, it may quickly surpass human intelligence, possibly by a huge margin. Some believe that the country that develops AGI first could attain global dominance. This prospect risks setting off intense competition between the United States and China. Indeed, a narrative has already developed that the superpowers are locked in an AI race, with the Trump administration proclaiming its determination to 'dismantle unnecessary regulatory barriers' to winning it. We argue that this approach presents three profound dangers. The first two are familiar from past arms races: being overtaken by a rival or triggering a war. The third is new: losing control of human beings' future to agents far more intelligent than we are, which could endanger our very survival. Striving to get to AGI first risks a race to the bottom on safety practices and regulation concerning them. China does not yet appear bent on racing to superintelligence. The United States should prioritise both unilateral and co-operative efforts to improve AI safety and avoid provoking a race that all humanity could lose.
| Subjects: | Computers and Society (cs.CY); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) |
| ACM classes: | K.4.1 |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2610.17085 [cs.CY] |
| (or arXiv:2610.17085v1 [cs.CY] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.17085 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) |
Submission history
From: Max Hellrigel-Holderbaum [view email]
[v1]
Mon, 12 Oct 2026 16:47:49 UTC (413 KB)
来源：arXiv：cs.AI · arxiv.org