Tomer Tunguz 分析中美 AI 定价差距：DeepSeek V3 以 90% 折扣对标 GPT-5.2

Kirkland ibuprofen is the same molecule as Advil. Same dosage, same FDA requirements, same therapeutic effect.¹ It costs 80% less.

AI has its generic drug moment. DeepSeek V3 matches GPT-5.2 on most benchmarks.² It costs 90% less. OpenAI & Anthropic generated $22 billion in 2025.³ Chinese AI labs generated $1.8 billion.⁴ The ratio : 12:1.

Pricing explains the gap. Chinese AI API prices collapsed 90% in 2024.⁵ US frontier models average $3.38 per million input tokens. Chinese models average $0.48.

OpenAI processes roughly 8.6 trillion tokens per day.⁶ Chinese labs likely match or exceed this volume. The 12:1 revenue gap isn’t usage. It’s price.

Three forces drive Chinese prices down.

First, distillation commoditizes capability. Anthropic accused DeepSeek, Minimax & Moonshot AI of conducting “industrial-scale campaigns” to extract knowledge from Claude.⁷ OpenAI made similar accusations to Congress.⁸

Second, hyperscalers subsidize AI to win cloud customers. Alibaba Cloud cut LLM pricing by up to 97%.⁹ Baidu, ByteDance & Tencent spent $1.1B on AI subsidies during Chinese New Year 2026 alone.¹⁰

Third, DeepSeek set the floor. They trained V3 for $6 million versus OpenAI’s $100 million+ for GPT-4,¹¹ price at $0.14 per million input tokens & hit $220 million ARR with 122 employees.

In the US, Chinese models also price at a discount. Together AI charges $1.25 per million input tokens for DeepSeek V3.¹² DeepInfra offers $0.21 per million.¹³ DeepSeek’s own API charges $0.14 - 12x less than GPT-5.2.¹⁴

Pharma companies spend billions developing a molecule, then enjoy 20 years of patent protection to recoup R&D costs before generics flood the market. AI follows the same pattern - massive R&D costs upfront, then commoditization. But the timeline is compressed.

In pharma, the generic window opens after two decades. In AI, it opens in weeks. DeepSeek V3 costs $0.14 per million tokens. GPT-5.2 costs $1.75. Same capability. Different label. The 90% discount isn’t coming. It’s here.

The question : how to protect an asset that takes hundreds of millions to develop when it can be copied in a month?

Sources

1. Generic vs Brand Name Ibuprofen - CBS News ↩︎

2. DeepSeek-V3 Technical Report - arXiv ↩︎

3. OpenAI Revenue - The Information, Anthropic Revenue - Bloomberg ↩︎

4. Chinese AI lab revenues (trailing 12 months as of mid-2025) : 4Paradigm $834M - KrASIA, SenseTime $610M - Yahoo Finance, DeepSeek $220M - Business of Apps, [Minimax $79M, Zhipu $70M - industry estimates] ↩︎

5. China AI Price War - South China Morning Post ↩︎

6. OpenAI Token Volume - PYMNTS ↩︎

7. Anthropic Distillation Claims - CNBC ↩︎

8. OpenAI DeepSeek Memo - Bloomberg ↩︎

9. Alibaba 97% Price Cuts - SiliconAngle ↩︎

10. Chinese New Year AI Spending - Morgan Stanley ↩︎

11. GPT-4 Training Cost - TechRadar ↩︎

12. Together AI Pricing ↩︎

13. DeepInfra Pricing - Artificial Analysis ↩︎

14. DeepSeek Official Pricing ↩︎