AI 种子轮激增将引发新一轮 acquihire 潮
The Coming Wave of Acquihires
2021 年美国软件与 AI 种子轮从 2900 笔跃升至 4300 笔（增长 49%），而 Series A 数量基本固定，导致种子轮到 Series A 的转化率下降 86%。作者认为这批"过剩"种子轮将催生大量 acquihire——通常低于 2000 万美元的人才收购，这一动态与 2015 年相似。
In short : The surge in AI seed funding is leading to increased acquihires as Series A conversion rates drop significantly.
The Seed Surge of 2021 will lead to a raft of acquihires.
In 2021 the total number of US software & AI seeds jumped from 2900 to 4300 - a 49% jump. Seeds fell to about 3000 creating a seed tabletop.
Series As moved in lockstep both on the way up and the way down - creating a squeeze.
These data form part of a longer term trend of a greater number of seeds but a relatively fixed number of Series As.
The result?
An 86% reduction in the seed to Series A conversion rate. Part of this may be seeds are seed-strapping : raising a seed and continuing on profits, catalyzed by the efficiencies of A.
AI is another component : pre-AI and post-AI companies, which are roughly demarcated by the launch of GPT 3.5 in late 2022. Retooling products with AI takes time.
Even with those factors, the amount of “excess” seeds (quantity more than the Series A market can handle), continues to grow, resulting in the decreasing conversion rate.
This dynamic mirrors 2015 when a surfeit of seeds drove a steady increase in the number of acquihires.
Acquihires, acquisitions typically under $20m for talent, may become de rigeur as incumbents seek to bolster their teams with AI talent & update existing products with new capabilities.
Get the next one in your inbox
The 1-minute read that turns tech data into strategic advantage.
Read by 150k+ founders & operators.
GP at Theory Ventures. Former Google PM. Sharing data-driven insights on AI, web3, & venture capital.
来源：Tomer Tunguz 博客 · tomtunguz.com